The 2009 Copenhagen Diagnosis: Climate Science Report provides a critical update to the global public on the latest climate science. The purpose of this report is to synthesize the most policy-relevant climate science published since the close-off of material for the last IPCC report that supplements the IPCC AR4 in time for Copenhagen in December, 2009. The prognosis it outlines is pretty grim unless serious and sustained global action is taken now to roll back carbon emissions back down to levels far below the world’s current levels.

The reports contributing authors are: I. Allison, N.L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindschadler, P.M. Cox, N. de Noblet, M.H. England, J.E. Francis, N. Gruber, A.M. Haywood, D.J. Karoly, G. Kaser, C. Le Quéré, T.M. Lenton, M.E. Mann, B.I. McNeil, A.J. Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H.J. Schellnhuber, S.H. Schneider, S.C. Sherwood, R.C.J. Somerville, K. Steffen, E.J. Steig, M. Visbeck, A.J. Weaver.

The report is now available for download as both high resolution and low resolution PDF documents.
Click here to download the high resolution PDF (23.3 MB)
Click here to download the low resolution PDF (3.3 MB)

Summary of the Report

The report covers the range of topics evaluated by Working Group I of the IPCC, namely the Physical Science Basis. This includes:

• an analysis of greenhouse gas emissions and their atmospheric concentrations, as well as the global carbon cycle;

• coverage of the atmosphere, the land-surface, the oceans, and all of the major components of the cryosphere (land-ice, glaciers, ice shelves, sea-ice and permafrost);

• paleoclimate, extreme events, sea level, future projections, abrupt change and tipping points;

• separate boxes devoted to explaining some of the common misconceptions surrounding climate change science.

The report’s intended audience are: policy-makers, stakeholders, the media and the broader
public as well. Each section in the report begins with a set of key points that summarizes the main findings. The science contained in the report is based on the most credible and significant peer-reviewed literature available at the time of publication.

The Most Significant Recent Climate Change Findings

Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increases the chances of exceeding 2°C warming.

Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-induced warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19°C per decade, in very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short-term fluctuations are occurring as usual, but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. The area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

Current sea-level rise underestimated: Satellites show recent global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be ~80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets.

Sea-level predictions revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4; for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as ~ 2 meters sea level rise by 2100. Sea level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperatures have been stabilized, and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets, Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”) increases strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.

The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – needs to be reached well within this century. More specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-95% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.

© 2009, Chris de Morsella. All rights reserved. Do not republish.

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Author: Chris de Morsella (146 Articles)

After a decade performing as a lead guitarist for rock bands, Chris de Morsella decided to return to the career his uncle mentored him in as a youth....Software Engineering. Since that time he has thrown himself into his work. He has designed a compound document publishing architecture for regulatory submissions capable of handling very large multi-document FDA regulatory drug approval submissions, for Liquent, a division of Thompson Publishing. At the Associated Press, Chris worked with senior editors at facilities around the world, to develop a solution for replacing existing editorial systems with an integrated international content management solution. He lead the design effort at Microsoft for a help system for mobile devices designed to provide contextual help for users. Chris also helped to develop the web assisted installer for LifeCam2.0, the software for Microsoft’s web cam and developed late breaking features for the product He also served with the Rhapsody client team to redesign and build a major new release of Real Networks Rhapsody client product. His most recent assignment has been Working with the Outlook Mobile Time Management team for the next release of Outlook Mobile for the SmartPhone. Chris' interests are in green building and architecture, smart grid, the cloud, geo-thermal energy, solar energy, smart growth, organic farming and permaculture. Follow Chris on Twitter.

  • Greg

    Who can take any of this seriously? Science has taken a back seat to politics, with the result that the ample evidence that CO2 tracks temperature, not vice versa, has been suppressed.

    • Chris de Morsella

      Greg can you show us this “suppressed ample” evidence you speak of? From a credible science source… wing-nut loony fringe skeptic sites and ex-TV weathermen don’t count. Back up your assertion with referenced annotated and credible material, if you are able to.

      You seem to be denying that the world is rapidly warming. I have a pretty good idea where you get your “information” from — because I have surfed over to many of the denier sites and bogus lists and bogus “institutes” having been in the position of exposing denier half truths and denier lies and denier misrepresentation of data or mis contextualizing data.

      Looked at any pictures of the melting polar ice cap lately or the retreating glaciers?

      The linkage between CO2 emissions and global warming is substantial and the actual science community is profoundly alarmed. You can choose to live in denial for whatever reasons are driving you to pull the wool over your eyes, but rapid and increasingly catastrophic climate change won’t go away just because you — and a small hard core of flat earth denial junkies — continue to re-iterate the same denier myths and talking points.

      We all live in a very real world and the real world is under very serious stress and that stress is getting progressively worse. Unless we take profound action we will all soon be baked.

      Ever heard about the great Permian extinction event? That is how bad it could get unless we take global action now.